Abstract: An accurate understanding and prediction of mosquito population dynamics are needed to identify areas where there is a high risk of mosquito-borne disease spread and persistence. Simulation tools are relevant for supporting decision-makers in the surveillance of vector populations, as models of vector population dynamics provide predictions of the greatest risk periods for vector abundance, which can be particularly helpful in areas with a highly variable environment. We present a generic weather-driven model of mosquito population dynamics, which was applied to one species of each of the genera Anopheles, Culex, and Aedes, located in the same area and thus affected by similar weather conditions. The predicted population dynamics of Anopheles hyrcanus, Culex pipiens, and Aedes caspius were not similar. An. hyrcanus was abundant in late summer. Cx. pipiens was less abundant but throughout the summer. The abundance of both species showed a single large peak with few variations between years. The population dynamics of Ae. caspius showed large intra- and inter-annual variations due to pulsed egg hatching. Predictions of the model were compared to longitudinal data on host-seeking adult females. Data were previously obtained using CDC-light traps baited with carbon dioxide dry ice in 2005 at two sites (. Marais du Viguerat and Tour Carbonnière) in a favourable temperate wetland of southern France (Camargue). The observed and predicted periods of maximal abundance for An. hyrcanus and Cx. pipiens tallied very well. Pearson's coefficients for these two species were over 75% for both species. The model also reproduced the major trends in the intra-annual fluctuations of Ae. caspius population dynamics, with peaks occurring in early summer and following the autumn rainfall events. Few individuals of this species were trapped so the comparison of predicted and observed dynamics was not relevant. A global sensitivity analysis of the species-specific models enabled us to identify the parameters most influencing the maximal abundance of mosquitoes. These key parameters were almost similar between species, but not with the same contributions. The emergence of adult mosquitoes was identified as a key process in the population dynamics of all of the three species considered here. Parameters associated with adult emergence therefore need to be precisely known to achieve accurate predictions. Our model is a flexible and efficient tool that predicts mosquito abundance based on local environmental factors. It is useful to and already used by a mosquito surveillance manager in France. © 2015 Elsevier B.V.

Abstract: A hyperelastic constitutive model is developed for textile composite reinforcement at large strain. A potential is proposed, which is the addition of two tension and one shear energies. The proposed potential is a function of the right Cauchy Green and structural tensor invariants whose choice corresponds to textile composite reinforcement mechanical behavior which exhibits weak elongations in the fiber directions and large angular variations in the fabric plane. The model is implemented in a Vumat user routine of ABAQUS/Explicit. Some elementary tests are performed in order to identify the model and verify its validity. It is then used to simulate the hemispherical punch forming of balanced and unbalanced fabrics. A correct agreement is obtained with experimental forming processes.

Abstract: A digital land cover map of South America has been produced using remotely sensed satellite data acquired between 1995 and the year 2000. The mapping scale is defined by the 1 km spatial resolution of the map grid-cell. In order to realize the product, different sources of satellite data were used, each source providing either a particular parameter of land cover characteristic required by the legend, or mapping a particular land cover class. The map legend is designed both to fit requirements for regional climate modelling and for studies on land cover change. The legend is also compatible with a wider, global, land cover mapping exercise, which seeks to characterize the world's land surface for the year 2000. As a first step, the humid forest domain has been validated using a sample of high-resolution satellite images. The map demonstrates both the major incursions of agriculture into the remaining forest domains and the extensive areas of agriculture, which now dominate South America's grasslands.

Abstract: Background: Managed forests are a major component of tropical landscapes. Production forests as designated by national forest services cover up to 400 million ha, i.e. half of the forested area in the humid tropics. Forest management thus plays a major role in the global carbon budget, but with a lack of unified method to estimate carbon fluxes from tropical managed forests. In this study we propose a new time- and spatially-explicit methodology to estimate the above-ground carbon budget of selective logging at regional scale. Results: The yearly balance of a logging unit, i.e. the elementary management unit of a forest estate, is modelled by aggregating three sub-models encompassing (i) emissions from extracted wood, (ii) emissions from logging damage and deforested areas and (iii) carbon storage from post-logging recovery. Models are parametrised and uncertainties are propagated through a MCMC algorithm. As a case study, we used 38 years of National Forest Inventories in French Guiana, northeastern Amazonia, to estimate the above-ground carbon balance (i.e. the net carbon exchange with the atmosphere) of selectively logged forests. Over this period, the net carbon balance of selective logging in the French Guianan Permanent Forest Estate is estimated to be comprised between 0.12 and 1.33 Tg C, with a median value of 0.64 Tg C. Uncertainties over the model could be diminished by improving the accuracy of both logging damage and large woody necromass decay submodels. Conclusions: We propose an innovating carbon accounting framework relying upon basic logging statistics. This flexible tool allows carbon budget of tropical managed forests to be estimated in a wide range of tropical regions. © 2016 The Author(s).