Abstract: Wetland dynamics in northern Brazil during the Holocene were studied by pollen analysis and AMS radiocarbon dating of three cores. Near the Amazon mouth region, covered mainly by primary Amazon coastal forest and herbaceous vegetation, the pollen record indicates the dominance of mangroves between 4800 and 1100 cal yr B.P. A contraction of the mangrove area and an expansion of herbaceous and fern vegetation occurred between 1100 and 750 cal yr B.P. The period between 750 and 200 cal yr B.P. is characterized by an expansion of mangrove and a decrease in herbaceous and fern vegetation. This trend continued until the present. On Atalaia Island, the sediment core indicates a period with poor pollen preservation between 830 and 630 cal yr B.P. Between 630 and 330 cal yr B.P., mangroves expanded. Later, up to 45 cal yr B.P., the mangrove area decreased and the herbaceous vegetation expanded. During the last hundred years, the relative sea-level rise most probably favored the mangrove expansion as far as the topographically highest sector on this island, while the herbaceous vegetation decreased. The pollen data from Agua Preta Lake indicate dry conditions, as reflected by the poor pollen preservation between 390 and 240 cal yr B.P. Between 240 and 60 cal yr B.P., restinga and Amazon coastal forest with palms dominated this region. For the last 120 years, the record indicates an expansion of the mangrove area. However, recent confinement of mangrove development to the topographically highest area, and the loss of mangrove areas on the lowest surfaces have led to a net loss of mangrove coverage during the last decades.

Abstract: Inflorescences of arum lilies have a three-part spadix with a scent-producing, sterile appendix above two bands of fertile male and female florets. The appendix and male florets are thermogenic, but with different temporal patterns. Heat-production was measured in Arum concinnatum, A. creticum and A. idaeum. The male florets of A. concinnatum showed a 3 d continuous episode of thermogenesis with three waves, and the appendix warmed in a single, 6 h episode. Maximum fresh-mass-specific CO2 production rate was 0.17 μmol s(-1) g(-1) to achieve a 10.9 degrees C temperature elevation by the appendix, and 0.92 μmol s(-1) g(-1) to achieve a 4.8 degrees C elevation by male florets. Reversible, physiological temperature regulation was not evident in either tissue. Respiration increased with tissue temperatures with Q(10) values of 1.8-3.9, rather than less than 1.0 as occurs in thermoregulatory flowers. Experimental step changes in temperature of appendix and male floret tissues also failed to show thermoregulatory responses. The patterns of thermogenesis therefore appear to be fixed by the temporal sequence of blooming. Thermogenesis in the alpine species, A. creticum and A. idaeum, was significantly lower than in the lowland A. concinnatum, possibly related to difficulty in raising floral temperature in their cold and windy habitat.

Abstract: In many situations it is important to be able to propose N independent realizations of a given distribution law. We propose a strategy for making N parallel Monte Carlo Markov chains (MCMC) interact in order to get an approximation of an independent N-sample of a given target law. In this method each individual chain proposes candidates for all other chains. We prove that the set of interacting chains is itself a MCMC method for the product of N target measures. Compared to independent parallel chains this method is more time consuming. but we show through examples that it possesses many advantages. This approach is applied to a biomass evolution model. (C) 2009 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: In agroforestry systems, the distribution of light transmitted under tree canopies can be a limiting factor for the development of intercrops. The light available for intercrops depends on the quantity of light intercepted by tree canopies and, consequently, on the architecture of the tree species present. The influence of tree architecture on light transmission was analysed using dynamic 3D architectural models. The architectural analysis of Acacia mangium and Tectona grandis was performed in Indonesian agroforestry systems with trees aged from 1 to 3 years. 3D virtual trees were then generated with the AmapSim simulation software and 3D virtual experiments in which tree age, planting density, planting pattern and pruning intensity varied were reconstructed in order to simulate light available for the crop. Canopy closure of trees was more rapid in A. mangium than in T. grandis agroforestry systems; after 3 years the quantity of light available for A. mangium intercrops was three times lower than under T. grandis. Simulations with A. mangium showed that practices such as pruning and widening tree spacing enable to increase the total transmitted light within the stand. On T. grandis, modification of the tree row azimuth resulted in changes in the spatial and seasonal distribution of light available for the intercrops. These results are discussed in terms of agroforestry system management.

Abstract: Modelling the local density of tropical saplings can provide insights into the ecological processes that drive species regeneration and thereby help predict population recovery after disturbance. Yet, few studies have addressed the challenging issues in autocorrelation and zero-inflation of local density. This paper presents Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling (HBM) of sapling density that includes these two features. Special attention is devoted to variable selection, model estimation and comparison. We developed a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model with a latent correlated spatial structure and compared it with non-spatial ZIP and Poisson models that were either autocorrelated (Spatial Generalized Linear Mixed, SGLM) or not (generalized linear models, GLM). In our spatial models, local density autocorrelation was modeled by a Conditional Auto-Regressive (CAR) process. 13 explicative variables described ecological conditions with respect to topography, disturbance, stand structure and intraspecific processes. Models were applied to six tropical tree species with differing biological attributes: Oxandra asbeckii, Eperua falcata, Eperua grandiflora, Dicorynia guianensis, Qualea rosea, and Tachigali melinonii. We built species-specific models using a simple method of variable selection based on a latent binary indicator. Our spatial models showed a close correlation between observed and estimated densities with site spatial structure being correctly reproduced. By contrast, the non-spatial models showed poor fits. Variable selection highlighted species-specific requirements and susceptibility to local conditions. Model comparison overall showed that the SGLM was the most accurate explanatory and predictive model. Surprisingly, zero-inflated models performed less well. Although the SZIP model was relevant with respect to data distribution, and more flexible with respect to response curves, its model complexity caused marked variability in parameter estimates. In the SUM, the spatial process alone accounted for zero-inflation in the data. A refinement of the hypotheses employed at the process level could compensate for distribution flaws at the data level. This study emphasized the importance of the HBM framework in improving the modelling of density-environment relationships. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.